Lightweight Division Forecast

Another project I’m working on is a “forecast” piece on each division, this one is for the Lightweight division going up to UFC 205 on November 12th. I’ll be working off of the rankings on my site HERE. Again these movements are derived from ELO calculations. Each outcome can be calculated and the new rankings established. These pieces were inspired by several people who kept messaging me asking what would happen if so and so won or lost.

Some of you will enjoy the statistical side to these articles and others will simply use them as markers  for who to keep an eye on in each division. Either way this is what is possible with a mathematical ranking system instead of a biased opinion based system.

Any questions just tweet me like always @Izi_Garcia

Championship Status (UFC) = Unstable

1 or less Title Defenses = Unstable
2 Title Defenses = Stable
3 or more Title Defenses = Dominant


Expected Outcomes

Dos Anjos (#2) vs Ferguson (#6)
53% of Tapology members believe Dos Anjos will win while 47% believe Ferguson will win.

Held (#12) vs Sanchez (NR)
71% of Tapology members believe Held will win while 29% believe Sanchez will win. 

Magomedov (#13) vs Dariush (NR)
60% of Tapology members believe Magomedov will win while 40% believe Dariush will win. 

Aoki (#3) vs Folayang (NR)
98% of Tapology members believe Aoki will win while 2% believe Folayang will win. 

Alvarez (#1) vs McGregor (#3 FW)
58% of Tapology members believe McGregor will win while 42% believe Alvarez will win.

Nurmagomedov (#5) vs Johnson (NR)
85% of Tapology members believe Nurmagomedov will win while 15% believe Johnson will win. 

Miller (#14) vs Alvez (NR WW)
57% of Tapology members believe Alves will win while 43% believe Miller will win. 

1  Rafael Dos Anjos ∧ 1 Unscheduled
2  Conor McGregor NR Unscheduled
3  Shinya Aoki Unscheduled
4  Eddie Alvarez ∨ 2 Unscheduled
5  Khabib Nurmagomedov Unscheduled
6  Benson Henderson ∨ 2 vs Chandler (NR) Nov 19th
7  Justin Gaethje vs Zeferino (NR) Dec 31st
8  Francisco Trinaldo Unscheduled
9  Tony Ferguson ∨ 3 Unscheduled
10  Edson Barboza ∨ 1 Unscheduled
11  Rashid Magomedov ∧ 2 Unscheduled
12  Will Brooks ∨ 2 Unscheduled
13  Marcin Held ∨ 1 Unscheduled
14  TJ Grant ∨ 2 Unscheduled
15  Leonardo Santos Unscheduled
Notes: With a loss to Alves, Jim Miller would fall out of the top 15. 

Potential Newcomers

  • Beneil Dariush (Currently 13-2) could enter the top 15 with a win over Magomedov
  • Michael Johnson (Currently 17-10) could enter the top 15 with an upset over Nurmagomedov. Losses to Diaz, Dariush and Fury really hurt Johnson’s record.
  • Conor McGregor (Currently 20-3) would be ranked top 3 with a win over Alvarez. If he loses to Alvarez depending on how other fights play out he could be ranked 11th or 10th.

Miscellaneous

If Eddie Alvarez is not able to retain his belt at UFC 205 and Rafael Dos Anjos wins his fight the ceiling of the division goes down by 8 points. This  decrease in points allows other dominant champions in other organizations to move up in the rankings, potentially even becoming the new ceiling of the division. If Justin Gaethje keeps defending his belt successfully and UFC champions keep losing their belt on the first or second title defense, Gaethje could become the #1 ranked LW fighter in the world making this division a WSOF division with a dominant champion.

However, if Alvarez is able to defend his belt successfully the ceiling goes up by 35 points and Eddie remains as the #1 LW fighter in the world.

The lightweight division in the UFC has not been stable since Ben Henderson held the belt 3 years ago.

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